Kanan Makiya, in a round-table discussion of mistakes in the Iraq war, writes:
I know that I got many things wrong in the
run-up to the 2003 war, but, in spite of everything, I still do not
know how to regret wanting to knock down the walls of the great
concentration camp that was Saddam Hussein's Iraq. The nature of
political action is that its consequences are unknowable. That is the
source of the wonder, beauty, and ugliness that politics can bring into
the world. Should I have let that unknowability determine the morality
of the case for the overthrow of the regime in Iraq? Would we have had
a moral war in 2003 if there had arisen an Iraqi version of Nelson
Mandela, and are we now saddled with an immoral one because he did not
appear? I cannot think like that. Perhaps it is incumbent upon those
who now regret supporting regime change back in 2003 to tell us what
the alternative moral course of action was. Was it to wait and watch
until the time bomb that was Saddam Hussein's Iraq blew up in
everyone's faces?
In an earlier debate at Lastsuperpower.net, the cost of the Iraq war as measured by the Lancet studies was raised. A discussion followed about the uses to which such studies can be put in politics, culminating in a question about the war's worth. I responded:
Owenss asks ~
"I am willing to accept the figure of 151,000 violent deaths as
accurate. The question remains do you think that the benefits of the
war have been worth the cost?"
But this isn't the question at all.
The question is, will the outcome of the Iraq war have been worth it's cost compared to the outcomes of other strategies?
The
question of the cost of the war is nearly always, and always
mendaciously, put in the context of the Lancet's propaganda about the
war. Asking the question this way is simply a means of avoiding any
attempt at finding the true answer.
Niall Ferguson - no leftist
true, but an able historian nonetheless - reminds us of the importance
of this contextualization in his introduction to the book "Virtual
History." It is not enough to simply (and simple-mindedly) criticize
historical decisions. One must also demonstrate alternate
possibilities, and analyze the probability for their success.
I point this out, on the fifth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq,
to illustrate the continued poverty of debate on the subject. How can
it be that, despite the permanent reversal of centuries of Sunni
imperialism, the widespread embrace of democracy by Iraqis, and the
destruction of a regime as vicious as any in modern history, Mr. Makiya
must ask, of those "who now regret supporting regime change," what an
alternative moral course of action was?
We'll find no such alternative with Richard Cohen, the respondent
closest to policy-makers, excepting perhaps Mr. Makiya himself. What we
do find are a few rambling and unrelated paragraphs on the anthrax
attacks, contradictory certainty that "while Iraq once had a nuclear
weapons program, it no longer did" together with the knowledge that
biological and chemical weapons don't constitute a threat of "mass"
destruction and unpreparedness for "the revelation that Iraq had no WMD
whatsoever."
This is instructive of the general level
of cognitive dissonance in his response since, to the extent that the
WMD argument is important to the case for invasion, he seems to be
suggesting surprise at not having found working nuclear weapons in Iraq
- about which all intelligence agencies were confident he didn't have -
and what else could have been "WMD" if we discount biological and
chemical weapons? This is a profoundly misleading series of statements,
and not just from the a-historical certainty that, prior to 2003, Iraq
no longer had a nuclear weapons program. Are we to suppose the regime
had simply forgotten what it had learned from the very real program we
know it had engaged in prior to the first Iraq war?
As absurd as this sounds, this is precisely what one often reads
about the regime's supposed WMD: that it had forsaken any real
development, maintaing only the appearance of it through it's
systematic subversion of UN sanctions and weapons inspections, in order
to intimidate it's neighboring enemies. By pretending that the regime's
knowledge of nuclear weapons had vanished permanently, those who
maintain the "WMD for appearances only" position mistake a short term
truth for a longer one.
The importance of this temporal elision becomes clear with the one lucid paragraph Cohen writes in his apologia:
One final argument appealed to me. It was quite clear that, over
time, Saddam would slip the noose of U.N. sanctions, the United States
would tire of its campaign to enforce the no-fly zone, the Europeans—so
worldly, so repellently even-handed about Israel, so appalled by
Saddam's excesses, and, finally, so full of shit—would do business with
the regime, and Saddam would be free to use his oil wealth for weapons
and war. If something were not done when it seemed that something could
be done, then nothing would ever be done—until it was too late.
Europe - France and the Chirac government particularly - were well
on their rhetorical way toward this in the years before the war. The
caustic toll on society that Saddam's subversion of UN sanctions had
wrought were increasingly being blamed on the UN itself, and
particularly the champions of the sanctions, the US and Britain.
Dominique de Villepin said
of Chirac's government in 2001, that "[w]e believe, of course respecting
the international legality, we should as fast as possible try to lift
these sanctions." To an extent, the governments of the US and Britain
were ready to go along with the French.
The best one can say about the motivations for statements such as
made by de Villepin is that the removal of the sanctions was a
necessary carrot in order to reinstate weapons inspections. But this
suggests a misplaced faith in the inspections regime to do it's job
effectively on the one hand, and on the other formalizes Saddam's
strategy of increasing the suffering of his own citizens under the
pretext of the effects of the very sanctions de Villepin wanted to
lift! This puts the West in the position of simultaneously (and at
least in part wrongly) accepting responsibility for the toll of sanctions and Saddam's subsequent actions,
implicitly legitimizing his response to the sanctions, and thereby
undermining the very tool it sought to re-establish the inspection
regime with.
Thus, the specter of a reinvigorated Hussein regime appears; and
having won a significant victory over it's Western enemies, it would
have found it's field of play greatly increased. Economically, a
revitalized regime would have been freer to develop those weapons even
skeptics admit Hussein needed - so much so that he risked his regime
merely on the basis of needing at the very least to appear to
have them - and politically able to continue to subvert the inspections
program. Add to this the failure of containment in North Korea and
Iran, as well as an A.Q. Khan network that would have continued to work
in secrecy, aided perhaps by the fact that West's the strategic options
for containment had been significantly reduced. Taken together, these
counter-factuals suggest a much more compelling reason to invade than
Cohen's supposed surprise at not finding stockpiles of nuclear warheads
would suggest. The issue with regard to WMD in Iraq was not the cartoon
illustrated by Cohen, but the far more sophisticated picture painted by
Rolf Ekeus, who described an industry being developed for WMD which
remained hidden through classical counter-espionage practices as well
as behind dual-use smoke screens and "just in time" production
methodologies. This is now playing out in Iran, where the political
efforts at containment by the West are inevitably proving useless, even
counter-productive.
Ekeus maintained that the WMD threat from Saddam's regime lay not in the existence of " rusting drums and pieces of munitions containing low-quality chemicals" - the focus on which he called "bizarre," but rather with the longer term capability to produce those weapons during wartime. This is precisely the argument Cohen seems to ignore in his Slate article.
Presumably then for those who supported the war primarily on the basis of Iraq's WMD, the goals of the war have either been achieved or "proven" a mistake by the absence of those rusting drums. The continued presence of Coalition troops in Iraq must seem unnecessary, even counter-productive. It is perhaps why so many on the so-called Left in American politics are so intent on removing US troops as soon as is logistically possible. Never having been taken in by the Bush Administration's "lies," they see no need to continue to suffer military casualties, and have long since abandoned their more legalistic claims of the responsibility to secure Iraq, and caring little for the resultant chaos the Coalition departure will bring, or despairing much that little can be done to prevent it.
I think to the contrary that, while WMD and oil both are naturally vitally important aspects of the case for invasion, that this war was not "about" either one. What the war is about, in my view, not only transcends the arguments about WMD and oil but explains the locus of the Bush Administration's response to 9/11 and the need for a continued Coalition presence in Iraq.
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